Probabilistic Economic Theory - страница 22

The second reason of we have confidence in creating a successful dynamic or time-dependent theory of economic systems in the economic spaces is based on the analogous dynamic theory of physical systems in physical space. We also admit that the reasonable starting point in the study of economic systems dynamics is with equations of motion for a formal physical prototype. This is in spite of the differences between the features of the economic and physical spaces and the features of the economic and physical systems. The type of equations in the spaces of both systems will be approximately the same, though the essence of the parameters and potentials in them will be completely different. It is normal in physics that one and the same equation describes different systems. For example, the equation of motion of a harmonic oscillator describes the motion of both a simple pendulum and an electromagnetic wave. Formal similarity of the equations does not mean equality of the systems which they describe.

The discipline of physics has accumulated broad experience in calculating the physical systems of different degrees of complexity with different inter-particle interactions and interactions of particles with external environments. It makes sense to try and find a way to use these achievements in finding solutions to economic problems. Should any of these attempts prove to be successful, it would establish the opportunity to do numerical research on the influence that both internal and external factors exert on the behaviours of each market agent, as well as the entire economic system’s activity. This process would be done with the help of computer calculations done on the physical economic models. Theoretical economics will have acquired the most powerful research device, the opportunities of which could only be compared to the result of the discovery and exploration of equations of motion for physical systems.

The next step in developing a physical model after selecting an appropriate economic space, is the selection of a function that will assist us in describing the dynamics of an economy, such as the movement of buyers and sellers in the price space. Trajectories in coordinate physical space x(t) (classical mechanics), wave functions ψ or distributions of probabilities |ψ|^>2 (quantum mechanics), Green’s functions G and S-matrices (in quantum physics), etc. are used as such functions in physics. We started above with an attempt to develop the model using trajectories in the price space p(t) by analogy with the use of trajectories x(t) of point-like particles used in classical mechanics. Below, this model is referred to as a classical model or simply, a classical economy. Below, we will use the term classical economy in the broad sense for designating the branch of physical modeling of many-agent economic systems with the help of methods of classical mechanics of many-particle systems. It is important to realize that each selection gives rise to its own equations of motion and, therefore, to different physical economic models. For example, if we select from these trajectory variants, then we obtain the economic Lagrange equations of motion and, therefore, the classical economies as the physical economic models. The discussion will deal with these models in detail in Chapter III. If we select wave functions, then we obtain at the output the economic Schrödinger equations of motion and, therefore, quantum economies (see Chapters IX and X). Without going into details here, let us say that both the Lagrange and Schrödinger equations appear as the result of applying the principles of maximization to the whole economic system. This is analogous to the maximization principles, which are explored in physics in obtaining the Lagrange and Schrödinger equations, respectively.